The Ant Fund blog

Reading worth your time.

Essays on retirement math, indexing, simulation, and what financial independence actually means — written without jargon, without advice-giving, and without rushing.

6 articles

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A rising candlestick chart with a moving-average line through it, annotated with the single question behind all technical analysis: who is winning right now, buyers or sellers?
Trading30 min

Technical analysis from first principles: a beginner's complete guide

A thousand patterns have a thousand names — and every one of them is a footnote to a single tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Candlesticks, chart patterns, support and resistance, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and multi-time-frame analysis, explained from the ground up.

The single FIRE equation displayed across a cream background — FIRE number equals annual spending divided by safe withdrawal rate — with a dial showing the multiplier shifting between 21x and 33x as the rate moves
FIRE25 min

Your FIRE number: every major method, calculated and compared

There's one equation underneath every FIRE calculator. The whole debate is about how to set one number in it. A field guide to seven methods — Bengen's 4% rule, Morningstar's forward-looking SWR, CAPE-linked rates, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, dynamic withdrawals, and the variants (Lean, Fat, Coast, Barista) — plus the architecture that combines them.

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